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Methodology · Formula v0.1 · Updated 2026-04-23

How we build the number, line by line.

Our result page shows the full formula for every offer. This page explains each input, where it comes from, and why it moves the number the way it does.

Current formula: v0.1
The formula

Every cash offer on this site is built from these 5 lines.

=
After-repair value (ARV)1
What the house sells for once it's fixed up. Pulled from a licensed AVM, reconciled against local comps.
starting point
×
Condition adjustment2
Five tiers: excellent / good / fair / poor / uninhabitable. Tier sets which buyers will underwrite and at what discount.
tier multiplier
×
Market adjustment3
Your ZIP's sold prices vs. the metro median, rolling 90 days. Small adjustment, usually ±5%.
ZIP factor
Repair reserve4
Confirmed on walkthrough. If the scope comes in lower, the offer goes up, not down.
scope estimate
×
Buyer-margin band5
A band, not a fixed number. Different buyers in our network underwrite at different velocities.
90–96%
=
Your cash offer (midpoint)
a real number
[1]
After-repair value (ARV)

ARV is not what your house is worth today. It's what the house sells for AFTER a standard investor-grade renovation — updated kitchen, new flooring, paint, modern systems. This is the number a flipper sells to a retail buyer, and it's the ceiling the buyer works backward from.

We start with a licensed AVM (Automated Valuation Model) — currently RentCast. Then we reconcile it against actual closed sales in your ZIP in the last 90 days, filtered to renovated comps with similar beds, baths, and square footage. If the AVM is off from the comps, we use the reconciled number.

[2]
Condition adjustment

The condition multiplier sets the range of buyers willing to underwrite. A house in excellent condition has the widest buyer pool (flippers, landlords, retail cash buyers, even some iBuyers). A house in uninhabitable condition has the narrowest (experienced rehabbers who underwrite from lot value).

The five tiers (excellent / good / fair / poor / uninhabitable) map to multipliers roughly between 0.82 and 0.38. The multiplier for each tier is calibrated from closings our buyer network actually does in the field; it's not a formula we invented.

[3]
Market adjustment

Not every ZIP in a metro moves the same. The market adjustment compares your ZIP's 90-day rolling median sale price against your metro median. If your ZIP has been selling above metro, the adjustment is positive; below, negative.

The adjustment is usually small — between ±5%. It reflects local demand, not property-specific value. If your house is in a ZIP that's been rising faster than the metro, the buyer should share that upside with you, and the adjustment is how.

[4]
Repair reserve

Repair reserve is the dollar amount the buyer expects to spend rehabbing the house after they buy it. On the offer page, we show a pre-walkthrough estimate based on your condition answers. On walkthrough, the buyer confirms the actual scope.

If the scope comes in LOWER than our estimate, the offer goes UP, not down. That rule is written into every purchase contract our buyers sign. The only way the number moves the other direction is if you disclosed nothing and the walkthrough finds major undisclosed damage (foundation failure, undisclosed fire, hidden mold).

[5]
Buyer-margin band

The buyer-margin band (currently 90–96%) reflects the diversity of buyers in our nationwide network. The LOW end is a buy-and-hold investor with patient capital. The HIGH end is an active flipper with a 6-month exit timeline and a tighter internal hurdle rate.

When you accept an offer, the specific buyer who underwrites determines where in the band your final number lands. We disclose which buyer is assigned to your deal before the walkthrough, not after. The band is shown because the range is real — not because we're hiding a fixed multiplier behind a spread.

What this is NOT

Four things the offer is not.

Not a binding offer. The number on your result page is indicative until a buyer underwrites your specific property in person. We say this on every page, not buried in small print.
Not an appraisal. An appraisal is what a bank orders to back a loan. Our number is what a cash buyer will pay. They're different numbers for different purposes; don't use one as the other.
Not an iBuyer quote. iBuyers (Opendoor, Offerpad) buy with their own capital and charge a service fee of 5–8%. Our offer comes from an independent local buyer who takes a margin instead of a fee. The structure is different.
Not the retail price of your house. If you listed with an agent and made the house show-ready, you'd likely get more money. It would also take 60–120 days, plus repairs, plus commission. That's a different trade.
Version history

The formula is versioned. Changes are logged.

v0.1
2026-04-23
Initial release. RentCast AVM + reconciliation, 5-tier condition ladder, ZIP-level market factor, buyer-margin band 90–96%.
v0.2
Pending
Planned: swap AVM reconciliation to include county recorder raw sold data nationwide. Widen band as new buyer cohorts onboard in additional markets.

Every offer page shows which formula version built the number. When we update the formula, old offer links still reference the version they were generated under so you can see exactly what the math was at the time you got your number.

Sources
[1] RentCast AVM (licensed). Reconciled against MLS and county recorder closed sales for the local market. See also: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national and metro indices.
[2] Condition-tier multipliers calibrated from 184 closings by our buyer network in 2025. Reviewed against Buchak, Matvos, Piskorski & Seru, "Why Is Intermediating Houses So Difficult? Evidence from iBuyers," NBER Working Paper 28252, rev. April 2023.
[3] Redfin Data Center, rolling 90-day ZIP vs. metro median. Public release, applied per market.
[4] Buyer repair estimates calibrated against the HUD FHA 203(k) rehabilitation-scope taxonomy (Mortgagee Letter 2024-13) and RSMeans construction cost data, regionally adjusted.
[5] Buyer-margin band calibrated from our buyer network's 2024 closings across multiple states. Band reflects range between buy-and-hold (low) and active-flipper (high) underwriting.

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